{"id":366,"date":"2026-07-17T23:47:55","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T23:47:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ypindonesia.org\/?p=366"},"modified":"2026-07-17T23:52:44","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T23:52:44","slug":"do-not-start-wars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ypindonesia.org\/?p=366","title":{"rendered":"Do not start wars"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Do Not Start Wars You Cannot Win: A Geopolitical and Diplomatic Analysis of the 2026 U.S.-Iran Conflict and Its Implications for Multilateral Governance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

MYR Agung Sidayu<\/strong> – Chairman, Yayasan Pendidikan Indonesia – Special Consultative Status with ECOSOC, United Nations<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This scholarly article examines the strategic maxim \u201cDo not start wars you cannot win\u201d through the lens of the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict, known as Operation Epic Fury. Drawing on official statements, congressional testimonies, and media reports, the analysis highlights the transition from initial U.S. confidence in rapid military success to prolonged stalemate, alongside a notable shift in Washington\u2019s posture toward the United Nations\u2014from institutional skepticism and funding reductions to appeals for multilateral support. The findings underscore the risks of unilateral military engagements in complex regional environments, the limits of military superiority against asymmetric responses, and the erosion of trust in global governance when multilateral institutions are selectively engaged. This case illustrates the enduring relevance of prudent statesmanship, strategic humility, and consistent multilateralism grounded in the UN Charter. reuters.com<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keywords<\/strong>: U.S.-Iran conflict, Operation Epic Fury, multilateralism, UN funding, Strait of Hormuz, strategic prudence, international relations theory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In international relations, the decision to initiate armed conflict carries profound long-term consequences. Realist and neorealist theories emphasize the importance of rational calculation of capabilities, costs, and probable outcomes (Waltz, 1979; Morgenthau, 1948). The historical record\u2014from overextended empires to modern protracted conflicts\u2014consistently validates the maxim: Do not start wars you cannot win<\/em>. Failure to achieve decisive strategic objectives often leads to diminished credibility, economic ripple effects, and domestic political costs. newsweek.com<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2026 U.S.-Iran confrontation provides a contemporary case study. Launched in late February 2026, this conflict tested assumptions about rapid military dominance in an era of regional proxy networks and critical maritime chokepoints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Methodology<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article employs a qualitative case-study approach supported by content analysis of primary sources (U.S. State Department remarks and congressional testimonies) and secondary reporting from reputable outlets. The temporal scope covers February to July 2026, focusing on military developments, diplomatic narratives, and institutional interactions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Early Confidence and Harsh Realities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On or around February 28, 2026, the United States, in coordination with Israel, initiated Operation Epic Fury through airstrikes targeting Iranian missile capabilities, naval assets, nuclear infrastructure, and proxy support networks. Senior U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, expressed optimism that the operation would conclude in \u201cweeks, not months,\u201d achieve its objectives without large-scale ground troops, and leave Iran substantially weakened. newsweek.com<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran responded with asymmetric measures, including strikes on shipping and mining operations in the Strait of Hormuz\u2014a vital artery for global energy flows. Although a ceasefire was announced in April 2026, it faced repeated violations. By June 2026, Secretary Rubio informed Congress that the \u201cwar is over,\u201d citing significant degradation of Iranian capabilities and economic damage. However, lawmakers and analysts highlighted persistent disruptions, elevated global oil prices, stalled negotiations over the Strait, and incomplete achievement of core non-proliferation goals. usatoday.com<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This phase of the conflict demonstrates the inherent limitations of conventional military superiority when adversaries leverage geography, asymmetric tactics, and resilience. Prolonged interference with maritime commerce in the Strait of Hormuz generated economic externalities far exceeding the immediate theater of operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. The UN Reversal: From Dismissal to Selective Appeal<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A particularly instructive dimension of the crisis concerns U.S. policy toward the United Nations. Early in the conflict, consistent with longstanding skepticism and an \u201cAmerica First\u201d orientation, the administration portrayed the UN as ineffective on core security issues. Secretary Rubio and others criticized the body\u2019s perceived failure to condemn Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz or pass U.S.-backed resolutions decisively. youtube.com<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This stance aligned with concrete policy measures implemented since 2025, including significant cuts to UN funding, rescissions of contributions, staff reductions, and reforms that prioritized bilateral leverage and conditional support for peacekeeping and aid programs. lowyinstitute.org<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the conflict proved more intractable\u2014with negotiations over sanctions relief, nuclear constraints, and Strait access dragging on\u2014reports emerged of U.S. appeals to UN mechanisms for international pressure and legitimacy. To observers, this represented a pragmatic but ironic pivot: an institution previously deemed incapable of meaningful constraint on U.S. action was now invoked to manage fallout and share burdens. youtube.com<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Listen carefully to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The desperation is clearly dripping from every word.
Watching him now suddenly appeal to the UN is rich, considering his own administration branded it as irrelevant, undermined it, and slashed its funding.

There is a lesson\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/QKSCXKg1fJ<\/a><\/p>— Richard (@ricwe123) July 17, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote>